Donald Trump has moved closer to Hillary Clinton in many
polls, but she still holds a lead. Some leading pollsters had Mitt Romney ahead
in 2012, only to see a Democratic landslide.
Will the same thing happen this year? There are signs that
Clinton is ahead in most swing states, and that even the Senate could be taken
over by Democrats.
538 warns that there is no guarantee her strong position in
the swing states means she will win in the electoral college.
However, the election site also says: “Overall, Clinton’s
leads in the tipping-point
states — the ones most likely to determine the Electoral
College winner in a close election — average about 4 percentage points, close
to her numbers in national
polls.”
It is difficult to determine how to fit reports that show
Trump is losing badly among some increasingly important demographic groups,
including Hispanics, African-American, millenials and women. How important
these groups will be depends to a large extent on how many turn out. Trump has
not charmed them, but Clinton remains distrusted.
Reviewing how polls were done is no guarantee that a reader
will be able to separate the wheat from the chaff. There are so many issues,
though one can be tracked fairly easily.
Does a pollster consistently lean towards Republicans or
Democrats? Even that may not mean they will likely be wrong.
We do know the white population has not been growing as fast
as other groups as birth rates decline.
“The U.S. electorate this year will be the country’s most
racially and ethnically diverse ever. Nearly one-in-three eligible voters on
Election Day (31%) will be Hispanic, black, Asian or another racial or ethnic
minority, up from 29% in 2012. Much of this change is due to strong growth
among Hispanic eligible voters, in particular U.S.-born youth.
We do know the white population of registered voters has
grown less than other groups.
“An analysis of changes in the nation’s eligible voting
population – U.S. citizens ages 18 and older – offers a preview of profound
U.S. demographic shifts that are projected to
continue for decades to come. While the nation’s 156 million
non-Hispanic white eligible voters in 2016 far outnumber the 70 million
eligible voters that are racial or ethnic minorities, their growth lags that of
minority groups. As a result, the non-Hispanic white share of the electorate
has fallen from 71% in 2012 to 69%,” the Pew Research Center reports.
“There are 10.7 million more eligible voters today than
there were in 2012. More than two-thirds of net growth in the U.S. electorate
during this time has come from racial and ethnic minorities. Hispanics, blacks,
Asians and other minorities had a net increase of 7.5 million eligible voters,
compared with a net increase of 3.2 million among non-Hispanic white eligible
voters.”
Keep in mind, some minority groups are more likely to vote
than others.
Although Clinton had trouble with millenials when she was
battling Bernie Sanders, the younger voters have taken the advice of Sanders
and seem likely to vote for her now.
“Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is
consolidating the support of the Millennials who fueled Bernie Sanders'
challenge during the primaries, a new USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Poll
finds, as Republican Donald Trump heads toward the worst showing
among younger voters in modern American history.
“The survey shows Clinton trouncing
Trump 56%-20% among those under 35, though she has failed so far
to generate the levels of enthusiasm Sanders did — and the high turn-out that
can signal — among Millennials.”
No comments:
Post a Comment